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July 31, 2014, 10:09:49 AM
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Author Topic: Trading Course - Momentum 1  (Read 3356 times)

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wah-sabi

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Trading Course - Momentum 1
« on: November 13, 2012, 11:53:19 AM »
Stock N/A [.KL]
Last Traded Price N/A
Last Traded Date 01 Jan 1970
Last Traded Time 08:30 pm
Chg and % Chg N/A
Volume N/A
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CHAPTER 2
 
Momentum's Leading Edge
 
To recap, the first thing you should assess when studying a price chart initially is the trend structure. This can be done objectively via the Pure Price Method or the Moving Average Method, preferably in conjunction. Once you establish that price is in a rising or falling trend, the second step is to assess the magnitude or power of that trend. To do this, you'll need the leading edge that momentum can give you, both to identify confirmations in the early stages of a trend and non-confirmations in the form of momentum divergences as the trend matures in its latter stages. In this way, momentum provides two benefits to your analysis, first in confirming the health of a new trend in development, and second in assessing the likely end of a mature trend via divergences in advance of the official but delayed signal the Pure Price and Moving Average methods reveal to you.
 
That's not all momentum can do for you—the momentum helps you set specific trades, namely the impulse-related trade setups like flags and Impulse Buy setups we discuss in Chapters 9 and 10. In this chapter, you will learn how to interpret the momentum conditions of a price move, identify momentum bursts as confirmations of early trends, and locate divergences as early warning signals that a mature trend is showing signs of a potential future reversal.

MOMENTUM IN THE STOCK MARKET
 
We define momentum in simpler terms when describing price on the charts, with the simplest definition being “momentum represents a change in price over time.” Large changes represent large spikes in momentum—also known as acceleration—and hint that price will continue traveling in the direction the momentum burst occurs. You want to see momentum spikes or sharp acceleration occur at the start of a new trend, either before or shortly after a trend reversal has occurred using the definitions and tactics in Chapter 1, or breaking out of a sideways trading range as we will see in Chapter 3. Initial bursts of momentum after lengthy divergences represent a kickoff in price that often leads to a pure trend reversal and tradable opportunity for low-risk profits.
 
In an article for the Journal of Technical Analysis entitled “Momentum Leads Price,” Timothy Hayes explained that momentum leads price through detecting acceleration and deceleration. Using an example of two cars, Hayes showed that if two cars leave the same destination with the same acceleration and stop accelerating at the exact same time, then both cars would continue coasting forward and slow at the same rate, all things being equal. However, what would happen if one driver accelerated for a longer period before taking his foot off the accelerator? That car would subsequently coast forward for a longer period of time and travel farther than the other car whose driver released the accelerator earlier.
 
Such a comparison of cars and acceleration is similar to stocks and their momentum qualities, such that stocks with higher momentum often travel higher in price relative to stocks with lower momentum readings, using the momentum to coast to higher prices than stocks with lower momentum. It is thus very important to assess the momentum environment when assessing opportunities in specific stocks to trade.
 
GAPS REVEAL MOMENTUM
 
Observe momentum by itself without indicators by looking at sudden changes in price. A gap or sudden large price move is by definition a momentum impulse, highlighting the force (of supply or demand) acting on the price of the stock or market. Let's see a simple example of a positive earnings announcement in Amazon.com's stock (AMZN) serving as a momentum burst (Figure 2.1).
 
FIGURE 2.1 A Gap as a Momentum Impulse in Amazon on October 23, 2009



 
Prior to the gap in mid-October 2009, Amazon was range-bound (trendless with a slight upward bias). However, the positive earnings announcement sent traders rushing to buy the stock (and short-sellers rushing to cover their short positions), which appeared on the chart as a momentum impulse. This is similar to Newton's First Law of Motion which states that “objects tend to stay at rest until a force acts upon them,” which in this case was a rush of buyers creating the force, driving price higher. Taking into account Law 2, “an object will accelerate proportional to the force that acts upon it.” To the extent that this positive earnings surprise caused a rush of buyers to purchase shares of Amazon, the stock will be expected to continue higher in price as the initial force of momentum—like throwing a tennis ball into the air—leads to a higher trajectory and uptrend in price. Stronger initial impulses can be expected to drive price higher than weaker initial impulses—all things being equal.
 
In plain English, this means that the spike in price and the corresponding volume spike, which often accompanies any sort of momentum burst or impulse, sent prices higher and led us to expect a continuation of upward prices into the future. Stated differently, after observing a momentum impulse in price, we expect continued higher prices in the future, translating into low-risk trading opportunities such as buying shares on pullbacks to support levels in the context of a rising trend. Like the ball rising immediately from the initial momentum burst the moment it leaves your hand and then continuing to rise, we would expect stock prices to continue rising higher in the aftermath of a major impulsive event that sends price higher either in a breakout or continuation trend motion. Positive momentum bursts in price reveal that a prevailing uptrend is healthy and should continue higher into the future, rather than reverse.
 
Let's see another example of a momentum burst (impulse), both to the upside and downside in Electronic Arts (ERTS) during the transition from 2004 to 2005 (Figure 2.2).
 
As revealed in Amazon, a gap was the initial impulse burst that led to higher prices yet to come in the future. Electronic Arts shows the same concept in December 2004 when price began to accelerate in a momentum burst confirmed by an accompanying rise in volume. From December 10–14, 2004, we see three days in a row of one-sided action, showing a sharp acceleration of price to the upside, revealing our momentum burst (or force acting on the object—price). Such momentum bursts hint to us that odds favor even higher prices yet to come. We'll learn in later chapters that it is best to put on a position immediately following the first retracement after we see a spike in momentum (I call this the Impulse Buy trade), but we first must understand why these make good trade setups by learning the foundation concept of momentum.
 
We can see an example of the concept in a breakaway gap to the downside in March 2005 with a downside impulse leading to lower prices yet to come. On March 22, 2004, price opened down $9.25 or almost 14 percent lower, showing us a clear momentum impulse, or burst, to the downside, serving as a force that kept prices traveling lower. Notice the large spike in volume: almost 40,000,000 shares traded that day, when the average for the prior days was near 5,000,000 shares per day. Price reached an absolute bottom of the move in May 2005 at $47.45.
 
FIGURE 2.2 Two Gaps showing two Momentum Impulses in Electronic Arts, 2004/2005 Daily Chart
 

 
Of course, not all gaps result automatically in a continuation of the trend. Breakaway Gaps and Common Gaps do so, but Exhaustion Gaps (those that form at the end of a lengthy trend) do not. Breakaway Gaps occur at the start of a new trend near the time of a confirmed trend reversal, while Common Gaps (also known as Measured Gaps) occur usually near the middle state of a trend. Exhaustion gaps are a different story, as they occur at the end of a lengthy trend and fill immediately. Breakaway Gaps rarely fill, while Exhaustion Gaps fill almost immediately; in fact, that is the distinguishing characteristic between them. It also shows the importance of taking into account the maturity of a trend when assessing momentum readings.
 
Amazon and Electronic Arts showed an example of a Common (Measured) Gap when the price broke in impulse fashion to the upside, while the second gap on March 23, as seen in Figure 2.2, in Electronic Arts showed us an example of a Breakaway Gap to the downside after price had formed volume (and momentum) divergences, as price rallied to new highs. We will discuss divergences as forecasting trend reversals later in the chapter.

Tevan89

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Re: Trading Course - Momentum 1
« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2013, 12:31:18 PM »
long and useful :x :x

godoot

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Re: Trading Course - Momentum 1
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2014, 03:06:55 PM »
pictat.com closed, so all the pictures cant be viewed.

PI Capital

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Re: Trading Course - Momentum 1
« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2014, 05:11:41 PM »
Hi,
We have upcoming Traders' Course on 22-23 March 2014. You may register to our preview on the following dates:
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« Last Edit: March 07, 2014, 05:19:47 PM by PI Capital »

casey

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Re: Trading Course - Momentum 1
« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2014, 10:58:22 PM »
May I know how much is the fees ?

Thanks

endarn

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Re: Trading Course - Momentum 1
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2015, 05:05:44 PM »
I think it's very complicated and it details a lot.

dbs14029

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Re: Trading Course - Momentum 1
« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2015, 06:45:26 PM »
Thanks for the great read! With technical analysis as such, do you look into a company's fundamentals as well?

stvlieow

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Re: Trading Course - Momentum 1
« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2016, 12:30:52 AM »
Thanks for sharing

Alexforu

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Re: Trading Course - Momentum 1
« Reply #8 on: April 24, 2017, 06:40:47 PM »
Forex adalah singkatan yang membawa maksud Tukaran Mata Wang Asing. Tidak mengapa kalau anda rasakan yang ia adalah tidak masuk akal, sebab kebanyakan orang kurang memahami maksud sebenarnya. Forex sebenarnya adalah pasaran yang paling aktif diniagakan di seluruh dunia. Satu perkara yang paling menarik mengenai pasaran ini adalah, tidak ada batu penghalang yang terdapat di dalam transaksi pasaran untuk perdagangan Forex. Setiap transaksi dilakukan secara elektronik tanpa perlu pergi ke kaunter.
alpari.com/ms/trading/

 

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